Windows 8 vs Mac OS
Friday, April 13, 2012 | 4:19 AM | 0 comments
Okay begin the story.
battles and their OEM relationships have weakened. On the other hand, Apple’s biggest weapon, Steve Jobs, is also out of this fight. That could get it interesting.
Apple set the bar with the original MacOS and Microsoft passed them with a less integrated and, at the time, less regarded product Windows (which initially was just an overlay on DOS). This was largely because Microsoft was able to call on IBM, Compaq, HP and other large players to enable their PC to enter the business segment and overwhelm Apple in that market. However, through most of that time, it was actually Commodore that dominated the market due to its tight focus on the consumer.
Windows 95
In 1994, Windows 95, which was driven by a still energized Bill Gates, Brad Silverberg, and Brad Chase trounced Apple and got iPod like lines at launch. Commodore, having tried and failed to go after the business market, was gone. Apple, in response, tried to go after businesses more aggressively and even licensed their OS. The result was that Apple found itself on a path to non-existence. It is interesting to note that Microsoft’s launch budget (estimated to have been $200 million in 1995 or nearly $300 million in today’s dollars) turned out to be half of what was actually needed, because it ran out after launch and sales volume, which started out with long Apple like lines, nearly slammed to a halt. It should also be noted that it was consumers that drove this wave, not businesses, who tried to stop Windows 95 and were overwhelmed by users bringing it in anyway.
Steve Jobs Apple
With Steve Jobs back at Apple, Apple stopped going after businesses and stopped the cloning to focus exclusively on their hardware and the consumer. Windows held its status until Microsoft shipped Windows Vista, but Microsoft took back lost space when Windows 7 corrected the problems Vista had created. However, the business market largely locked down on Windows XP, a product Microsoft had shipped years earlier. New consumer products from Apple, first the iPod, then the iPhone, and finally the iPad flanked Windows and overwhelmed Microsoft to dominate their respective markets. Only Android, a free iOS clone offering from Google seemed to effectively challenge Apple and mostly only with carriers and geographies that couldn’t get much of Apple’s offering.
Super User
The formula that repeatedly seems to win with user products is to focus almost exclusively on the consumer and the budget that assured Windows 95’s success should have been $600 million in today’s dollars against a weakened Apple and an IBM (OS/2) that was all but out of the market. Apple’s success was tightly tied to Steve Jobs and his use as a “super user” – a unique concept in the market.
I figure I’d better define this. A “super user” is one that defines the product and, by proxy represents, all users. What made Steve Jobs unique is that he was also the CEO of Apple and in a position to fund his conclusion to success. For instance, if you look at the iPhone, the RIM keyboard form factor should have likely been preferred based on usage, but Jobs funded demand generation efforts to a level that RIM could not match and changed the perception, which forced an Apple favorable outcome.
In effect, he had the resources to change how people looked at the market. Tim Cook, Apple’s new CEO, has the authority, but he appears to be a more traditional CEO and may not fill this unique super user slot (outside of founders, this method is rarely used and most caretaker CEOs don’t get that involved in product creation or marketing).
Defining the Battle to Come
By the way, it appears when both firms do best, it is when the products have adequate marketing funding and are focused on the consumer who then drives the product into businesses. Having corporate features can speed this business penetration, but they don’t make up for a lack of consumer demand (thus why XP was so hard to displace and why Apple has penetrated businesses massively without those features).
Windows 8 is still a year off, giving Apple a year to respond and Microsoft has not been able to sustain a highly funded marketing campaign for long (it appears they have largely pulled the plug on their Windows Phone 7 efforts for instance). Their marketing budget for Windows, based on Windows 95 numbers and a vastly stronger Apple (who will be fighting back) and a wider geographic coverage than was the case in 1995, should likely approach $1 billion to assure success, but it is estimated to be well short of half of that.
On the other hand, Steve Jobs isn’t running Apple and that will likely slow and weaken Apple’s response. They didn’t take the Windows 95 risk that seriously without Steve Jobs either. It is interesting to note we never really saw a Steve Jobs vs. Bill Gates matchup as Bill actually helped Apple recover (giving Steve Jobs $100 million when he first came back to Apple) and then exiting much of Microsoft before the iPod shipped. This placed Jobs against Ballmer and Jobs won.
Now it is Tim Cook, who is new to the CEO roll against Ballmer, who is not. Both men likely realize how important this is to their success, but Ballmer has more experience in the roll than Cook does, on the other hand, he tends to underfund marketing and focus on businesses while Cook may not make that mistake.
Who Wins?
Likely it will come down to who wants the win more and is willing to stretch to make it happen. Steve Ballmer is largely thought to be a failure as a CEO, but if he hits this out of the park that perception will change quickly. Tim Cook is untested and if he fails here, he will likely follow Yahoo’s Carol Bartz into obscurity. It is important to Ballmer that he is not seen as someone who just got the job because he is Bill Gates’ less than competent friend, and Cook certainly doesn’t want to end his CEO life as a failure.
A lot of us don’t believe that anyone can run Microsoft or Apple successfully, the first has become too complex and the second requires Steve Jobs. Both CEOs have a unique opportunity to assure their respective legacies along with their companies. Cook will need to stretch to become Jobs and Ballmer will need to do whatever it takes to assure Windows 8 and consumer demand. It is unlikely that either will survive failure. Either firm can win, but it will come down to who wants success the most.